Wall Street Journal Political Diary: "Scales may be tipping in the Oregon Senate race"

"Everyone in Oregon Runs on Obama's Coattails"
Robert Costa, The Wall Street Journal’s Political Diary
July 18, 2008

The scales may be tipping in the Oregon Senate race between incumbent Republican Gordon Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley, speaker of the state's House of Representatives. On Wednesday, Rasmussen published a new poll showing Mr. Merkley ahead of Mr. Smith for first time since the campaign began, setting off a political tizzy in the Beaver State. The Rasmussen finding has Mr. Merkley leading by a narrow 43%-41%. Last month, polls showed Mr. Smith ahead by nine points.

Both campaigns also released fundraising figures for the second quarter, and Mr. Merkley had out-raised Mr. Smith by $1.42 million to $1.35 million. However, Mr. Smith's war chest remains much bigger, $4.5 million to $500,000. Meanwhile, the Senator's campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride brushes off Rasmussen's poll. "These are questionable numbers from an oft-dismissed pollster," she tells PD. "We have long expected this to be a competitive race."

Responds Merkley spokesman Matt Canter: "Polls will go up and down, but Gordon Smith is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country."

Mr. Smith, seeking his third term, has gone to some lengths to cast himself as a centrist. In June, he began airing ads featuring Barack Obama "endorsing" his position on conservation. The notorious ad drew a rebuke from the Obama campaign, which clarified that, "in this race, Oregonians should know that Barack Obama supports Jeff Merkley." Mr. Obama leads Senator John McCain in the state by nearly 10 points.

Since then, Mr. Smith has retreated to more traditional Republican ground, preaching low taxes and fiscal responsibility. "We'll see how people feel about raising taxes in an economic slowdown," he told the Oregonian yesterday. His latest TV ad accuses Democrat Merkley of having "voted for higher taxes 44 times over ten years."

Posted July 18, 2008
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