New Poll Shows Merkley Leading Democratic Race

Merkley Has Surged Since April, Built Significant Lead Among Women

A new KATU-TV Portland News poll released tonight conducted by Survey USA shows House Speaker Jeff Merkley leading the Democratic race for U.S. Senate. Merkley has surged 20 points over the last month and has built a significant lead among women.

Late last week Gordon Smith began running false, negative ads attacking only Merkley and ignoring Steve Novick. New polling from Survey USA and Rasmussen shows that Merkley is the strongest Democrat to face Smith in November.

The New KATU poll shows Merkley leading Steve Novick, 31% to 27%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released eleven days ago, Merkley is up 3 points and Novick is down 3 points. Merkley now leads Novick 33% to 26% among women.

As the poll notes, "momentum is with Merkley among a number of key groups":

Among men, Novick had led by 10, today trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Novick had led by 5, today trails by 2. Among voters 50+, Novick and Merkley had tied; today, Merkley leads by 7. Merkley and Novick are effectively even in the greater Portland area. Merkley leads by 13 in the rest of the state. Among the 43% of voters who have already mailed their ballot, Merkley leads by 6; among those who are likely to return a ballot, Merkley leads by 3.

A Rasmussen poll released over the weekend showed similar momentum for Merkley. Merkley has picked up 13 points since the end of March against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith and is now in a statistical dead heat, trailing Smith 45% to 42%.

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Posted May 12, 2008
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